7/18/2004

Undraft Cheney?

The news regarding dropping Cheney for the Republican ticket has been flying fast and furious the last few weeks..Brad Delong has the wrap-up.  One part of me thinks this is Karl Rove's secret weapon, while another part thinks such a thing is categorically impossible.  A lot of the antagonism towards this administration is based in the idea that it is incapable of change.  And that vulnerability...the single image which they expect voters to pick again...is also their greatest strength.   The truth is, Bush so far is not actively campaigning with a fresh argument.  His campaign is almost entirely rooted in "Did you see the last four years?  That kicked ass." 
 
The power of any incumbent is his/her ability to combine recognition and position with the same newness the other guy is asking voters to take a chance on.  So far, Bush hasn't done the new part.  Witness the aborted "big-think" attempt earlier in the year, i.e., Mars.  Don't hear about those broad visions so much today.  This line is still up Rove's sleeve, and a vice presidential changeup would be a stunning way to do it.
 
On the other hand, that would go against every precedent we've seen from this administration, and, in power terms, it may not be fundamentally feasible.  Regarding the former: a vice president candidate change would essentially admit that the Bush administration has been wrong in some respects, that it understands the country's grievances, and that it will campaign in the interest of rectifying them.  So far, the administration strategy has been to avoid the 'wrong' ground at the cost of ABSOLUTELY any other considerataion.  The thought they would embrace a sneaky "I was wrong, let's compromise" stance now seems highly unlikely.  Regarding the latter: Cheney may simply be too powerful in this administration to get booted for political reasons.  Someone would have to convince G2 real good that his reelection hinged on the removal of Cheney, and the idea that a political advisor would be able to raise Cheney's presence to this kind of threat seems unlikely.
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